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UNFCCC Synthesis Report on the aggregate effect of INDCs

On 30 October, the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) released their synthesis report on submitted INDCs. The report captures 119 INDCs from 147 Parties to the UNFCCC, covering 146 countries. This covers submissions from 75% of all Parties to the UNFCCC, and represents 86% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in 2010.

The synthesis report suggests that if submitted INDCs are implemented, global emissions levels are estimated to reach around 57 Gt CO2-eq in 2030, with global average per capita emissions expected to fall by 9% and 5% by 2030 versus 1990 and 2010. The aggregate effect of the INDCs would not, however, be sufficient to reverse the upward trend of global emissions by 2025 or 2030. Aggregate global emission levels will not fall within the 2°C scenario if INDCs are implemented. The report did highlight that, with the implementation of INDCs, emissions growth is expected to slow by a third between 2010-2030 versus 1990-2010.

Other aspects from the report of note include that the majority of INDCs are national in scope, with some including immediate action. All INDCs cover CO2, but many also include methane, nitrous oxide and other GHGs. Over half of all INDCs include a long-term perspective on the transition towards economic growth based on low-emission, high-resilience development, and many have an adaptation component.

For more information, download the synthesis report.