Ipieca member company bp has released the 2020 edition of its Energy Outlook publication which explores the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2050 and the key uncertainties surrounding that transition.
The launch took place at the start of bp Week (14-16 September), during which bp CEO Bernard Looney and the senior leadership team also spoke about the organization's ambition to become a net-zero company by 2050.
Presented by bp Chief Economist Spencer Dale, the Energy Outlook 2020 considers a range of possible pathways the energy transition may take over the next 30 years. It explores three main scenarios - Rapid, Net Zero and Business-as usual - which span a wide range of possible outcomes.
Three features are common across these scenarios and they form a set of core beliefs in the Outlook as to how energy demand is likely to change over the next three decades:
- renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in meeting the world's growing energy needs;
- customers will continue to redefine mobility and convenience, underpinned by the mobility revolution that is already underway combining electric vehicles, shared mobility and autonomy; and
- oil and gas - while remaining needed for decades - will be increasingly challenged as society shifts away from its reliance on fossil fuels.
The structure of the energy system
These energy demand features feed into bp's beliefs about how the energy system will change through to 2050:
- the energy mix will become more diverse, driven increasingly by customer choice rather than resource availability;
- markets will need more integration to accommodate this more diverse supply and will become more localised as the world electrifies and the role of hydrogen expands; and
- countries, cities and industries will increasingly want their decarbonized energy and mobility needs met with bespoke solutions, shifting the centre of gravity of energy markets towards consumers and away from traditional upstream producers.
bp's Energy Outlook has been tracking and analysing the trajectory of the world's energy system for the past 10 years. To download the 2020 edition please visit: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html