The International Energy Agency (IEA) published its annual World Energy Outlook, which forecasts global energy demand to rise by 30% between today and 2040 under its "New Policies Scenario".
The IEA expects oil demand to reach 105 mb/d in 2040, an increase from todays estimated 97 mb/d, driven by growth in petrochemicals, trucking, aviation and shipping. Most of this increase will occur in India, China and South-East Asia. Demand for natural gas is expected to grow 45% in this period, particularly within the industrial sectors.
The IEA also introduces its "Sustainable Development Scenario" which offers an integrated way to achieve a range of energy-related goals crucial for sustainable economic development and that is consistent with the Paris Agreement. In this scenario there is increased focus on low carbon sources and energy efficiency, including through the contribution of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a key technology in realizing a low-emissions future.
This scenario also forecasts natural gas as the largest single fuel in the global energy mix with consumption rising by nearly 20% to 2030 and remaining broadly at this level to 2040. The IEA notes that securing clear climate benefits from use of natural gas depends on continuing action to minimize leaks of methane from the supply chain.
Ipieca's work on low-emissions pathways and the UN Sustainable Development Goals supports the IEA's analysis, recognising the need to reduce atmospheric emissions whilst meeting a growing energy demand. Ipieca is planning to build on its Exploring low-emissions pathways report next year to focus on the role of CCS and low-emission transport.